ENTSO-E Summer Outlook 2025: No adequacy risk is identified in Continental Europe, Nordics and Great Britain. Islands that are isolated or scarcely interconnected (Ireland1 , Malta2, and Cyprus) will require close monitoring.
The adequacy risk identified in Ireland at the end of the summer season is driven by multiple overlapping planned large dispatchable generator outages and the lack of new dispatchable generation entering the market to replace old units that have closed and to cover the increase in demand. The actual adequacy situation in Ireland will depend on the operational conditions, namely unplanned outages of the ageing generation fleet and especially wind generation. Non-market resources (1.4 GW) are now available and will significantly alleviate the risks.
Some residual risks are identified in the rather isolated Mediterranean islands of Malta and Cyprus. These risks might emerge in the event of high unplanned outages of the generation fleet and unfavourable weather conditions when demand is high and renewable energy source (RES) generation is low. Malta relies on non-market resources to ensure security of supply.
The surplus generation from variable renewable energy sources is expected to exceed demand during periods of high renewable generation combined with low demand, thus increasing countries’ export needs. However, neighbouring countries are also likely to face challenges of excess of renewables during the same period, leading to an increased risk of negative electricity prices across Europe. The impact of negative pricing and overproduction includes potential financial losses for generators and market distortions, necessitating careful management and strategic planning to mitigate these effects.
The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of the previous winter. In general, no adequacy issues were observed during the past winter of 2024–2025 due to mild temperatures and favourable hydrological conditions, although some countries experienced challenges. Some countries reported higher-than-expected consumption on record. Notably colder-than-average temperatures were recorded in February in the South-eastern part of Europe, while the Northern part experienced above-average temperatures during the same month.
Preparations for next winter 2025–2026 have begun. The TSOs’ feedback as well as the gas situation show a confident picture, with no specific concern identified. Preparedness and close cooperation with the European Commission, TSOs and Member States will continue in the coming weeks.
Since March 2022, Ukraine and Moldova have been synchronised with the Continental European power system. The situation in Ukraine remains uncertain due to potential attacks on energy infrastructure, according to national experts. As of May 2025, European transmission system operators enable the electricity export capacity to Ukraine and Moldova at 1.7 GW, while the electricity import from Ukraine and Moldova has been increased to 650 MW.
Soon after 12h30 CET on 28 April 2025, a major incident occurred in the power systems of Spain and Portugal, unrelated to an adequacy issue and resulting in a black-out in the power system of both countries. Some areas of France close to the border with Spain were also affected by the incident, albeit for a very limited duration. The established procedures and protocols for restoring the voltage of the electricity system were activated immediately and the system was successfully restored, with support from the French TSO RTE and the Moroccan utility ONEE. In accordance with European legislation for such an exceptional and grave incident, ENTSO-E established an Expert Panel to investigate the causes of this event, in accordance with the “Incident Classification Scale Methodology”3 . The Expert Panel will investigate the root causes, produce a comprehensive analysis, and make recommendations in a final report, which will be publicly available. National Regulatory Authorities and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) are invited to participate in this panel. Prior to the publication of the final report, ENTSO-E will publish a comprehensive report with full technical details on the incident. Furthermore, ENTSO-E will provide regular updates to the EU Commission and EU Member States, including progress reports of the investigation to the Electricity Coordination Group. Data so far have yielded that starting at 12:32:57 CET and within 20 seconds, presumably a series of different generation trips were registered in the south of Spain, accounting for an initially estimated total of 2200 MW. No generation trips were observed in Portugal and France. As a result of these events, the frequency decreased, and a voltage increase was observed in Spain and Portugal.